Please enter the university email adress you used when signing up to the prediction markets:
There will be a total of 18 studies on which you can bet that a hypothesis will be supported or not. These 18 studies will be listed below, as well as a link to the abstract of each paper and a link to the replication report that contains more details on the hypothesis, the study and the replication. All replication studies have a power of at least 90%.
In each market that you participate, you will bet on a binary outcome: whether or not the replication study finds a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study.
By statistically significant we mean a pvalue smaller than 0.05. By same direction we mean a coefficient that has the same sign as in the original study (i.e. positive or negative).
Before the prediction market opens, we ask all participants to fill out the following short survey.
For each of the 18 studies, please respond to the following questions:
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
Before doing this, please answer the following demographics questions (optional):
Position
|
Professor |
Associate Professor |
Assistant Professor |
PostDoc |
|
Lecturer |
PhD Candidate |
Master Student |
Undergraduate Student |
Years in academia after obtaining PhD
Age
Gender
| Male | Female | Other |
Affiliation
Country of residence
Nationality
Core fields of research
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Subjects exert more effort (leading to higher earnings) in a real effort task if the expectations-based reference point is increased (a comparison of the average accumulated earnings in the real effort task between the LO treatment and the HI treatment).
Original p-value: 0.046
Original sample size: 120
Replication sample size: 318
Replication power: 90%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: When there is imperfect monitoring, allowing punishment reduces net earnings (i.e., earnings after punishment costs).
Original p-value: 0.057
Original sample size: 117
Replication sample size: 340
Replication power: 90%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Adding a screening opportunity (informing the employer about the effort of the worker in the past three periods) for an employer that can offer full or limited discretion contracts increases efficiency (a comparison in average per-period total surplus between the base treatment and the screening treatment).
Original p-value: 0.007
Original sample size: 216
Replication sample size: 360
Replication power: 94%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Communication is effective in a hidden-information game when low-talent agents can participate in a Pareto-improving outcome (a comparison of the “Low B’s Don’t rate” for the messages (M) and no messages (NM) treatments for the (5,7) hidden information game).
Original p-value: 0.01
Original sample size: 162
Replication sample size: 264
Replication power: 90%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Effort in a minimum effort game is higher for subjects with a salient in-group identity than for subjects with a salient outgroup identity (a comparison of mean effort between the “Enhanced Ingroup” treatment and the “Enhanced Outgroup” treatment).
Original p-value: 0.033
Original sample size: 72
Replication sample size: 168
Replication power: 90%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Efficiency (average aggregate payoff) is higher with the social choice mechanism Shortlisting (SL) than with the Veto-Rank (VR) mechanism for preference profile Pf2.
Original p-value: 0.001
Original sample size: 158
Replication sample size: 156
Replication power: 90%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Efficiency in the Lagos-Wright money model is higher in an environment with money than in an environment without money for a population size of 6 (comparison in efficiency ratio between the money (M6) and the no money6 (NM6) treatments).
Original p-value: 0.01
Original sample size: 54
Replication sample size: 96
Replication power: 93%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: In a situation with verifiability, liability increases efficiency in a credence goods market (a comparison of efficiency between the B/LV treatment (liability/verifiability) and the B/V treatment (no liability/verifiability).
Original p-value: 0.0001
Original sample size: 168
Replication sample size: 128
Replication power: 92%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: The nonpecuniary disutility of being overruled causes a reluctance to delegate authority (a comparison of the average delegation rate between the HIGH NOREC and the PHIGH25 treatments).
Original p-value: 0.011
Original sample size: 60
Replication sample size: 102
Replication power: 91%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Cooperation in the prisoner’s dilemma is higher in continuous time with flow payoffs over 60 seconds compared to eight equal subperiods (a comparison in the level of cooperation between the Continuous treatment and the Grid-8 treatment).
Original p-value: 4.0e-11
Original sample size: 78
Replication sample size: 40
Replication power: 99%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Cooperation in a repeated prisoner’s dilemma with noise (a specific probability that an intended move is changed to the opposite move) is higher when there are cooperative equilibria (a comparison in the level of overall cooperation between the b/c=1.5 and the b/c=2 treatment).
Original p-value: 0.001
Original sample size: 124
Replication sample size: 120
Replication power: 90%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: The ability to pay future deferred compensation increases worker earnings (w2+w3) more when commitment is enforced (FCT) compared to non-enforcement (NCT).
Original p-value: 0.0039
Original sample size: 120
Replication sample size: 160
Replication power: 91%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Showing subjects a film clip inducing positive affect will increase measured patience, excluding subjects who do not discount at all (Table 3, column 5).
Original p-value: 0.031
Original sample size: 58
Replication sample size: 131 (after excluding non-discounters)
Replication power: 90%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: An organ donation policy giving priority on waiting lists to those who previously registered as donors increase registered organ donors (a comparison of the fraction choosing to be a donor between the priority condition treatment and the control condition treatment in rounds 1-15 (the rounds for the between subjects comparison)).
Original p-value: 1.631e-18
Original sample size: 288
Replication sample size: 48
Replication power: 95%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: A declining fundamental value (FV) increases mispricing in experimental asset markets (a comparison of the mean relative absolute deviation (RAD) between treatment 1 (T1) and treatment 2 (T2)).
Original p-value: 0.016
Original sample size: 120
Replication sample size: 220
Replication power: 90%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: The presence of a preplay asset market lowers output in a “second-order statistic” coordination game (a comparison of group output of the insider groups in the market treatment and the control group in Experiment 2).
Original p-value: 0.000026
Original sample size: 126
Replication sample size: 90
Replication power: 94%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: Subjects randomly placed in second-to-last place in terms of endowments are significantly less likely to allocate money to the person one rank below them in a choice of distributing $2 to the person one rank below or the person one rank above (a comparison of allocation decisions between subjects randomly ranked second-to-last and subjects randomly ranked 2-4 in the 6 person redistribution experiment).
Original p-value: 0.07
Original sample size: 42
Replication sample size: 138
Replication power: 91%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Replication report: Link
Hypothesis to bet on: The willingness to accept (WTA) for a mug is higher for a high probability of receiving the mug for free compared to a low probability of receiving the mug for free (a comparison of the mean WTA between the treatment MH (80% chance of receiving the mug for free at the end of the experiment) and the treatment ML (10% chance of receiving the mug for free at the end of the experiment) in Experiment 2).
Original p-value: 0.03
Original sample size: 112
Replication sample size: 250
Replication power: 90%
1A. What is the likelihood of this hypothesis to be replicated (on a scale from 0 to 100%)?
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
1B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
2A. What will be the final trading price in this market (ranging from 0 to 1 with two decimal places)?
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
2B. Please rate the confidence of your answer on a scale from 1 (no confidence) to 7 (very high confidence).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
3. Please rate your status of expertise for the replicated study on a scale from 1 (no knowledge of the topic) to 7 (very high knowledge of the topic).
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |